Andrew Kyle’s Blog - Calgary Real Estate

by Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., Realtor

The Calgary real estate market continues to slow, moving into territory not seen in a generation. It is an extremely difficult time to sell, and conversely an extremely good time to buy. The overall absorption rate (houses and condos combined, within city limits only) stands at 7.15 at the end of October. This is up dramatically from 5.29 at the end of September. What was driving the market for much of 2008, affordability issues, lower migration to Calgary and oversupply due to building activity, has now been joined by major economic upheaval in the form of the September-October 2008 financial crisis, and confirmation of a worldwide recession. The result was a nearly “perfect storm” causing a dramatic worsening of the market (from a seller’s perspective) in October, but the worst may be behind us, and the next two to three months may be the best time to buy in Calgary in a generation.

Looking forward there is reason to see a silver lining. The October numbers reflect a short-term mortgage availability problem that was caused by the worldwide financial crisis. For a brief time, some banks stops lending to each other, and the availability of mortgage funds was uncertain. This seems to have worked itself out. In addition, October to December are, historically, slow for home sales in Calgary - with things picking up after the holidays. So I am expecting that January 2009 will see at least a bit of a rebound (call it a “stabilization”) in the market.

Between now and the end of the year will be a great time for buyers, particularly if having a wide selection suits you. Many sellers will remove their properties from the market between now and the end of the year, so if you are a buyer, I think selection is peaking now at the same time that fixed mortgage rates are at the lowest that they are predicted to be for the remainder of 2008 and 2009. A great combination for serious buyers.

Condos:
The absorption rate for condos in October 2008 was 7.09 - a new high. So that is more than 7 months of inventory of condos currently listed on the MLS system at the current sales pace. The median price for 2 and 1 bedroom condos now stand at $265k and $231k respectively. This is down from $289k and $255k 12 months ago - price drops of 8.3% and 9.4% respectively in the last 12 months. See Chart A - Absorption Rate and Chart C - Median Prices.

If there is a silver lining in the condo market it is twofold:

1. The gap between houses and condos has closed for now. For much of the last year, the condo market has lagged behind the Single Family (SF) House market (see my Feb 2008 report for a detailed explanation of why), but the dramatic events of the last 6 weeks seems to have closed this gap. Perhaps this is just a statistical fluke due to volatility, or it may reflect that house buyers are more sensitive to the recent economic turmoil than condo buyers (possibly because of the higher values involved).
2. We are starting to see a slowdown in new condo units under construction (source: CMC Housing Now - October 2008 ). This is due to a slowdown in projects being started, a number of projects being stopped and a number of projects being completed. This is the first glimpse of the light at the end of the tunnel as far as condo oversupply mentioned in my Feb 2008 report, but we still have 12 to 24 months to go I think.

Houses:
The absorption rate for houses in October 2008 was 7.17 - like condos, a new high water mark since I have been tracking this key market indicator. The median price continues to fall. The median price now stands at $390k, down from $413k (-5.6%) 12 months ago. Median prices typically lag behind absorption rate somewhat, so I expect fairly dramatic price drops in November. See Chart A - Absorption Rate and Chart C - Median Prices.

Advice For Sellers:
My advice to sellers continues to be to focus on the critical importance of pricing your property for the new economic reality. It is absolutely crucial to get ahead of the price drops in this market. With only 1 out of every 7 properties on the market selling last month, only the best priced properties are selling. Many good properties priced at their “market value on paper” are not selling because they are not among the really well-priced properties. This is what I mean by urging sellers to get ahead of the market.

Advice For Buyers:
Between now and the end of the calendar year will be an especially great time to buy, particularly a condo. I think many sellers who aren’t especially motivated to sell will be taking their properties off the market over the next 6 weeks. And come January, I think additional buyers will jump into the market - this historically is what happens in Calgary. The two effects should return some balance to the market early in the new year. So November-December will be a great time to buy property in Calgary.

Additionally, expect mortgage rates to rise slowly over the next 6 months or so. I am told by Jason Dodd at Canada Mortgage Direct that it’s a good time to lock in a 1-year fixed rate. Expect interest rates (both fixed and variable) to be higher next year.

See my market report from September 2008 where I discuss in detail some of the other factors you should consider in deciding whether now is the time to buy for you.

Mortgage Availability Stabilizes, Variable Rates Rise

After a short-term issue with mortgage availability in October, things seem to have stabilized in the lending industry, and the issue of mortgage availability which I mentioned last month is gone for now. For a short time some banks were not lending to each other leading a short-term credit crisis here in Canada corresponding to the high profile one in the US. This seems to no longer be the case and mortgage availability has stabilized.

The fallout from the October ‘08 financial crisis has been a steep jump in variable mortgage rates. It was, for a time, possible get a variable rate mortgage at 0.5 to 1.0% below prime. For the time being the best variable rate mortgages are at prime to prime plus 0.5%. The average posted variable rates from my weekly survey of Canadian banks and mortgage brokers stands at 5.13% on November 1.

We also saw a short-term spike in the average 5-year fixed rates in October from 6.15% to 6.50% - a fairly dramatic 1-month jump.

And as I said earlier, 1-year fixed rates are stable for now at about 6.0% on average.

See my weekly mortgage rate chart here

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

… the turmoil on the financial markets seems to have had a chilling effect on the Calgary real estate market.

Below is my weekly Absorption Rate trend:

Notice the screeching halt in the market about 3 weeks ago.

The full set of weekly stats can be found here: http://www.andrewkyle.com/mlsca/home_page.php?page=weekly_stats

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. :o(

Condos: The absorption rate for condos at the end of September 2008 stands at 6.08 - a new high, and now breaking the psychological barrier of 6 - so that is more than 6 months of inventory of condos currently listed on the MLS system. The median price for 2 and 1 bedroom condos now stand at $262.5k and $222.0k respectively. This is down from $300.0k and $255.5k 12 months ago - price drops of 12.5% and 13.1% respectively in the last 12 months. In the last 3 months alone, median prices have fallen 6.9% and 4.1% for 2 and 1-bed condos respectively, supporting my feeling from the street that the fall in condo prices is starting to gain momentum and becoming “dramatic”. See Chart A - Absorption Rate and Chart C - Median Prices

Note: See my market report from February 2008 for some insight into why the difference between the condo and house markets.

Houses: The absorption rate for houses at the end of September 2008 stands at 4.97 - still well in the territory to be considered a strong “buyer’s market” but a slight improvement over the 5.12 it was last month and better than the high water mark of 5.47 in May of this year. So the SF House market seems to have stabilized and is very slowly improving over the last 6 months. Median prices continue to fall though as one would expect in a strong “buyer’s market”. The median price now stands at $395k, down from $420.5k (-6.1%) 12 months ago. The median price of houses three months ago was $408k, a drop of 3.1%. So the SF House market continues to be very soft and prices are falling, but not as dramatically as with condos. See Chart A - Absorption Rate and Chart C - Median Prices

Advice For Sellers:
My advice to sellers continues to be to emphasize the critical importance of pricing your property for the new reality. It is crucial to get ahead of the price drops in this market. Most sellers instinctively want to err on the high side when choosing a list price - it is natural to do so. Frankly, it is also a mistake in this market. If anything you want to err on the aggressive side with respect to list price in this market.

For condo sellers this advice is even more important. There is 6 months of inventory of condos on the MLS system - and then much more in the form of new condos not listed on the MLS. And your options are running out too - the official vacancy rate in Calgary has risen from 2.0% in the spring of this year to 4.0% this month (and unofficially my sources in the property management business tell me it is now more like 4.5%). So I was advising many potential sellers who were reluctant to price their property for the new reality to consider renting out their condos instead - but now, so many people are doing just that, that the softness has spread from the condo resale market to the rental market. Condo sellers, you are in a very tough spot with limited options I’m afraid.

Advice For Buyers:
It’s a great time to buy - simple as that. Prices are falling and the selection is great, even in the tighter SF House market. And if you are a condo buyer, well congratulations! It is an especially great time to buy a resale condo. If you are concerned that prices may fall even further and are wondering if you should wait, see my market report from last month where I discuss in detail some of the factors you should consider in deciding whether now is the time to buy for you.

Mortgage Availability Suddenly Becomes an Issue

Normally the mortgage rate update is the briefest part of my monthly market report, but there have been significant developments in the last month (and days) that are worth mentioning.

First, the “credit crunch” has hit home in Canada in the last few weeks. There is not nearly as much money out there for lenders to lend to home buyers. As a result, some people who would have been able to get a mortgage just a month ago will no longer qualify or will only qualify at higher interest rates or with a larger downpayment. These include the self employed, the underemployed, people who are a bit stretched financially and people with less-than-ideal credit. It is noticeably more difficult to get a mortgage today than it was just a few weeks ago.

Second, even though the Bank of Canada has lowered their trend-setting Overnight Rate (in a dramatic coordinated move with other federal banks around the world), it is not showing up in mortgage rates. In fact mortgage rates, both fixed and variable, are on the rise. See the weekly mortgage rate trend chart here. There are a few different reasons for this: 1. Banks are trying to recover their losses on the financial markets. 2. Banks/lenders have less money to lend, so they feel they can charge higher rates (supply and demand). 3. Banks/lenders are concerned about falling house prices and mortgage-defaults, and want higher returns because of what they see as higher risk.

So as a buyer, it is now more important than ever to get a mortgage pre-approval before home shopping. And as a seller it is now more important than ever to confirm your buyer has mortgage pre-approval before accepting an offer. The days of easy mortgage-access are over for now.

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

The Calgary real estate market continues to be very slow according to the August 2008 MLS stats. Total Calgary Metro listings at the end of August was 8,612, and properties sold was 1,669, yielding an overall absorption rate of 5.33. (See Charts A2 and A) The number of listings has fallen fairly dramatically for the third straight month since the “high water mark” of 10,617 in May 2008, but the number of sales has also fallen from 1,945 in May to 1,669 in August. The result continues to be a very strong Buyer’s market.

Single Family (SF) Houses continue to outperform Condos with absorption rates of 5.12 for houses and 5.82 for condos (see Chart A). The median price for a SF House in Calgary now stands at $398k - this marks the first time since January 2007 that the median price has been below the $400k mark. Median prices for 2- and 1-bed condos respectively are $261.5k and $239.7k. See Chart B. Median prices are down $32k in the case of houses, $42.5k in the case of 2-bed condos, and $14k in the case of 1-bed condos, in the last 12 months.

So in short, the significant market correction continues. Many predicted it would happen after the meteoric rise in prices in the first half of 2006, but after a lag of a year through to the midpoint of 2007, the correction is clearly here. And indications are that the correction is not yet done - prices will continue to fall until the absorption rate numbers come into line with a balanced market (under 3.5).

For Sellers:
My advice to sellers continues to be an emphasis on the critical importance of pricing your property for the new reality. It is crucial to get ahead of the curve in this market. Most sellers instinctively want to err on the high side when choosing a list price - it is natural to do so. It is also a mistake in this market. If anything you want to err on the aggressive side with respect to list price in this market.

Sellers need to put themselves in the shoes of buyers… Buyers know it is their market and they are looking for properties that exceed their expectations when they see them in person - they expect to be able to walk into a property and be pleasently surprised by what they can get for their money. And their expectations are not unrealistic because those properties are out there in this kind of market. If your property is not one of these well-priced properties then it will get lost in the sea of homes on the market and it simply will not sell - you will end up lowering your price eventually, but after the market has fallen further, and after buyers have stigmatized the property as overpriced or flawed in some way (”why has this property been on the market so long?”). Fight that instinct to list too high - trust the number your Realtor recommends for this market - be serious about selling, and you will be one of those whose property sells for a good price.

For Buyers:
My advice to buyers is essentially the same as last month… if the time is right for you personally to buy a new home then do it - you’ve got a great selection, and you can get significantly more for money than last year. It is called a “buyer’s market” for a reason - this is your market!

I get some buyers asking me if they should wait to see if prices drop further. My answer is that it depends on your personal situation and your priorities. If getting the lowest possible price was the only consideration in when to buy a home then there is really only one time to buy a home - when the market bottoms out before it begins to rise again. But there are a few problems with that:

1. We never know when this instant in time is upon us - we only know looking back after the market begins to rise again. Our look at the market is always in hindsight.

2. The bottom may be 18 months or more away - is the delay in moving on to the next phase of your life worth the money you may save even if your timing could be perfect?

And getting the lowest possible price is just one of the important considerations in when to buy, for example:

3. You also want to consider the selection out there - the more homes on the market, the more likely you are to get everything you want in a new home.

4. If a first time buyer, you want to consider whether the amount you will save by waiting will be more or less than the amount you will save in rent by buying now.

5. Also, you will want to consider your motivation for buying - if you want your own place for the first time in your life to celebrate your personal success, for example, then is it really worth putting off this dream for say another 6 or 12 months to potentially get a slightly better price?

So the answer to the “when to buy?” question is a very personal one - it all depends on your priorities. But that is what good Realtors help their clients do - examine your priorities, talk about the pros and cons, and give you all the information for you to make the right decisions.

Fixed Mortgage Rates Fall Slightly
Small drops in fixed mortgage rates this month. The one-year and five-year closed rates (average of all lenders) now stand at 6.06% and 6.17% respectively - down about 0.15% each from the beginning of August. The variable rate is 4.33% - only marginally less than last month.

The Board of Governors of the Bank of Canada is scheduled to meet again next week, so there may be changes to the trend-setting overnights rates at that time in response to the latest economic data.

Strong Buyer’s Market Continues

The Calgary real estate market remains in territory that I think is best described as a “very much a buyer’s market” according to the July 2008 MLS stats. Total Calgary Metro listings at the end of July was 9217, and properties sold was 1848, yielding an overall Absorption Rate of 5.15. (See Chart A and Chart A2) Although the number of listings continues to come down since the “high water mark” of 10,617 in May 2008, there are still far more properties on the market than there are buyers to absorb them. This continues to bring prices down as sellers who are serious about selling adjust to the facts of the market.Single Family (SF) House sales continue to outpace condos. The absorption rate for SF Houses stands at 4.92 at the end of July and for condos it is 5.72 a difference of 0.8. This is a significant gap and something condo owners need to consider when selling. Overall the market is very slow, and for condos it is even slower. This is not a monthly statistical “blip” - this divergence of the SF house and condo markets began in December 2007 and the gap has grown since. I predict condos will continue to lag behind houses in both sales and price for another 12 months or so, until the inventory of new condos coming on stream is absorbed. This bodes very well for condo buyers, as prices are coming down, but obviously bodes ill for condo sellers for the same reason.

(For interactive versions of all the charts in this report click here)

Median prices stand at $408,500 for houses, $267,500 for 2-bed condos, and $235,000 for 1-bed condos at the end of July. In July 2007 median prices stood at $435,000, $295,000, $255,000, for SF Houses, 2-bed and 1-bed condos respectively. So the drop in median prices over the last 12 months: $26,500 (6.1%), $27,500 (9.3%), and $20,000 (7.8%) for SF Houses, 2-bed and 1-bed condos respectively. Note that the drop in median price of 2-bed condos is greater than that of SF Houses - evidence that the lagging condo market is already showing itself in fairly dramatic price drops in condos. See Chart C.

For Sellers:
So my advice to sellers is the same as last month but perhaps with stronger emphasis; It is crucial that you price your property for the new reality - not just taking into account the price drops of the last year, but that even with those price drops, the market is still no where close to being in balance with respect to supply and demand. So in this market, if you are a seller, you want to get ahead of the curve - if you price your property incorrectly, it will simply sit there, and by the time you reduce the price, the market will have adjusted further and you will still be behind the game. Consider your list price very carefully - you want to be ahead of the curve, not behind it, in this market.

Sellers should also consider spending money to sell their home which they wouldn’t in a more balanced market. For example, staging a vacant home or bringing in a staging consultant to “freshen up” a furnished home. These can be expensive services, but with so many homes on the market - a $300 to $5000 staging can often have a greater effect than a further list price adjustment of say, $10,000. Bringing in handyman to do minor repairs and upgrades can also be a wise expenditure in this very competitive market.

For Buyers:
My advice to buyers is that if the time is right for you personally to buy a new home then do it - you’ve got a great selection, and you can get more for money (almost 10% more to be precise) than last year. It is called a “buyer’s market” for a reason - this is your market!

I get some buyers asking me if they should wait to see if prices drop further. My answer is that it depends on your personal situation and your priorities. If getting the lowest possible price was the only consideration in when to buy a home then there is really only one time to buy a home - when the market bottoms out before it begins to rise again. But there is problem with that; we never know when this instant in time is upon us - we only know looking back after the market bottomed out. But even more significantly, getting the lowest possible price is just one of the important considerations in when to buy. For example, you also want to consider the selection out there - the more homes on the market, the more likely you are to get everything you want in a new home. Also, if a first time buyer, you want to consider whether the amount you will save by waiting will be more or less than the amount you will save in rent by buying now. Also, you will want to consider your motivation for buying - if you want your own place, for example, to get away from an annoying roommate, then is it really worth putting off this dream for another 6 months to potentially get a better price?

So the answer to the “when to buy” question is a very personal one - it all depends on your priorities. But that is what good Realtors help their clients do - examine your priorities, talk about the pros and cons, and give you all the information for you to make the right decisions. If you are thinking of buying, call your favorite Realtor (suggestion: me) and schedule an appointment to discuss the market and your situation.

Mortgage Rates Steady
Only minor changes in mortgage rates this month. The one-year and five-year closed rates (average of all lenders) stand at 6.18% and 6.38% respectively. The variable rate is 4.35%. In the July, the Bank of Canada declined to change its trend-setting overnight lending rate - the Board of Governors is not scheduled to meet again until early September, so expect no significant changes in August unless there is an unexpected surpise in the financial markets. See my Mortgage Rate Chart here.

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

Below is my weekly market stats update. I call your attention to a growing gap between the condo and house markets (see the second chart and the red arrrow). If this trend continues I’ll write in detail about it in next month’s Monthly Market Report (in about 2 weeks). In the meantime… my advice is be careful if you are selling a condo - it is crucial that it be priced right if you are serious about selling it. For background you may want to read my Monthly Market Report from February 2008 or my blog post here from a few weeks ago where I talk about predictions regarding this emerging trend.

The market has moved toward a more balanced state after 4 months of sliding farther into a buyers market, according to the MLS stats for June 2008. The overall Absorption Rate stands at 5.11 at the end of June, with Condos lagging behind at 5.89 and Single Family Houses (SF) leading the way at 4.81. That is a fairly significant gap between houses and condos, 1.09, and in fact the biggest gap since I have been tracking the statistics in this way (July 2006). Condo sellers, in particular it seems, continue to struggle with a lack of buyers willing to pay their asking price. See Chart A.

In the 12 months from June 2007 to June 2008 the median prices for a house, 2-bedroom condo and 1-bedroom condo have dropped $31k, $28k and $19k respectively. In terms of percentage: 7%, 9%, and 7.5% respectively. See Chart C.

In spite of the prices of oil and natural gas being at all-time highs, there are economic factors that seem to be keeping buyers, particularly condo buyers from buying. Theses include the North American economic recession, lower migration to Alberta than in recent years, inflation fears, threats of rising interest rates, and housing affordability issues. All this economic uncertainty seems to be weighing heavily on the minds of buyers.

The average Days on Market (DOM) of properties sold in June was 45, but keep in mind this is simply the properties that DID sell, most of which were priced well for the market in order to sell. See Chart B. The Absorption Rate tells us that there are 5.1 months of properties in the MLS system. For sellers, it is important that you understand that the era when most properties in Calgary would sell in 30 to 45 days or less are gone for now, and you should lower your expectations, and most importantly build this new reality into your moving/job/step-up plans accordingly. If you are serious about selling, it is crucial that you price the property for the new market - properties that are priced well are still selling - there are buyers out there, it’s just that they have the pick of the market at this time, especially in the condo market, so they are simply bypassing overpriced properties.

For buyers, it is a great time to buy - you have a great selection and prices have dropped. I know some are predicting more price drops in the future but I think this is uncertain - as of this month the market seems to have stabilized for now. It is unclear to me if prices will fall further in Calgary - it is strange times we live in with what I am calling a “bipolar economy” here in Canada. I’m advising my buyer clients to look at their personal situation AND the numbers: if they want or need to buy a new (or first) home, then don’t hesitate because it is a GREAT buyer’s market, but if they aren’t certain that a new home is right for them at this time, or if they are uncomfortable with the thought that their new home might fall in value in the short term, then they may want to sit on the sidelines for now. In short, it is a great time to buy in Calgary, but only if your situation is such that you aren’t going to lose sleep over the economic speedbumps that seem to be the reality for now.

Mortgage Rate Report: Rates May Have Bottomed Out For Now

Average interest rates in western Canada stand at 6.37% and 6.16% for five-year and one-year close mortgages respectively. And the variable rate is 4.33%. See chart here. I am told by my mortgage broker network that interest rates have probably bottomed out for now, or nearly so, and should rise slowly for the second half of the year. If you are thinking of buying, go get that mortgage pre-approval now to lock in at the lower rates.

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

It looks like the trend to a more balanced market continues. Solds are up and inventories are coming down. You can say you heard it hear first - 2 weeks before you will read about it in the Herald.

- Andrew Kyle

CMHC published their Spring 2008 Rental Market Report on June 5.

The overall vacancy rate in Calgary in April 2008 is 2.0%, compared to 0.5% in April 2007. The breakdown:

Bachelor: 2.6%

1-Bedroom: 1.8%

2-bedroom: 2.2%

Average rents April 2007: bachelor:$608 1-bedroom:$848 2-bedroom:$1008 3+Bedroom:$939

Average rents April 2008: bachelor:$651 1-bedroom:$906 2-bedroom:$1081 3+bedroom:$1105

The full report including other markets: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64725/64725_2008_B01.pdf

- Andrew Kyle

It looks like the Calgary market has turned the corner, inventory is coming down now. The 3rd week of May appears to have been the high water mark for Absorption Rate and inventories. Knock on wood.

(c) 2008 Andrew Kyle. Feel free to re-use these charts provided you place a link back to this blog or my main website www.AndrewKyle.com.

I’ve published my Market report for June.  See below or click here: Market Report - June 2008

Market Report - June 3, 2008

by Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., Realtor

Now Is The Time To Buy!

I’m usually pretty conservative in my language in these market reports, but there is just no other way to describe the current market - “Now is the time to buy!” It is the best time to buy real estate in Calgary in many years. Home inventories are high, and buyers are reaping the benefits in the form of selection and being able to negotiate the best sale price and most favourable terms. If you have been thinking of buying but want to wait, what exactly are you waiting for?

The combined (houses and condos) Absorption Rate within Calgary city limits stands at 5.64, with houses being 5.47 and condos being 6.05 (See Charts A and A2 below - AR Trend). The very high absorption rate is something that we have not seen in Calgary in a very long time. Sales are down 32% in May 2008 from May 2007, while inventory at the end of the month is more than double what it was at the end of May 2008. The bottom line: there are far more properties for sale in Calgary than there are buyers to buy them - we are in the middle of a market correction.

Condos continue the trend of the last 6 months and are lagging behind Single Family (SF) houses. See the February Market Report for an explanation of why I think this is.

The average property sold in May was on the market 45 days (See Chart B - DOM Trend). Sellers should expect this number to continue to rise until the market corrects itself. The days when Calgary properties which were priced right sold in less than a month are gone for now.

The median price for one and two bedroom condos respectively is now $240k and $280k, down from $255k and $310k respectively in May 2007. For SF houses the median price is now $419k, a $16k decline from May 2007. (See Chart C - Median Price Trend) .

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

Copyright 2008 Andrew Kyle